We crave certainty because job number one for everyone on the planet is survival and the process of living contains many risks. Once we can cope with basic survival we want to improve our lot. If we know how future events will turn out then we can design a better life and carry it out with confidence.

Without this knowledge we will stick with the tried and true, the tried and tested. It might not fulfil our hearts desires but survival is the bottom line and not advancement. Consequently, we often feel trepidation in taking risks because if they don’t work out they can have a detrimental cost on our baseline performance and standard of living. Certainty, the sure thing, the ‘just can’t lose’ option allows us to advance without risk of losing anything and so it becomes an issue of great fascination for us.

As Yogi Berra said, “Making predictions is very difficult, especially about the future.”

The best method available to us for making predictions is the scientific method. Built into this method is the necessity for predicting with precision. A theory only has validity if it can predict, for a given set of conditions and inputs, the outcome of an event. Many scientific theories are continually refined with experimental information in order to make highly accurate predictions. If the theory proves indisputable then it can become a law, such as Hooke’s law and Boyle’s law, but these are few and far between.

Once we have a sound (but not necessarily perfect) theory we can translate those predictions into good engineering to make reliable products that behave predictably. Even here though we build in factors of safety and we have to contend with probabilistic predictions because we cannot deliver 100% guaranteed results. Uncertainty abounds, especially with complex systems full of interactions.

In our own lives we want certainty that the courses of action that we choose to take will guarantee (as far as is reasonably possible) that we will get the result that we want and hence justify taking risks. That’s a pretty tall order. We want that but it is almost impossible to fulfil. We can look to the example of other people for lower risk options on methods that have a greater likelihood of giving us what we want (e.g. education through books, courses, college degrees etc). We can even commit to courses of action that tend to guarantee great results if you qualify (becoming a medical doctor, lawyer, accountant or other highly regulated profession).

However, very often we have to take courses of action unique to our set of circumstances and desires. So, in an uncertain and unpredictable world, what can we do to take some of the risk out of taking on bold ventures?

• Research – find out what has been done before and how it was done. If someone else has done something similar then you use the same methods and adjust them to your own cause. This removes fruitless experimentation and helps to make decision-making easier.
• Theorising – stop and think in detail about the results that you want to deliver and the challenges that you will face. Think about the causes of those challenges and what you can do eliminate them at the source or else to contain and manage them so that the levels of unpredictability are reduced.
• Experimentation – theorising is a largely speculative affair and it becomes necessary to prove and refine theories through carrying out real world experiments. These should be constructed so that you create conditions for an event for which you predict the outcome. Record the actual results and compare them to the theoretical results. If necessary change or refine the theory to suit the results. Continue with this until you have a sufficiently robust level of prediction to suit your purposes and the level of uncertainty that you can bear given your own personal attitude to risk-taking and dealing with the consequences of things going wrong.
• Prediction – based upon methods that are proven to work and upon theories that give an acceptable level of predictability based upon experimental results (it is unlikely that you will come up with 100% predictability so you will always have to accept some level of uncertainty) construct plans and methods that have a high-likelihood of fulfilment.

Some things are more capable of prediction than others. The performance of physical objects or simple systems (classroom science experiments) is easier to predict than the performance of time-based complex processes (such as weather systems and stock-markets). Complex systems can be predicted for a few changes into the future with a reasonable degree of accuracy but the further into the future you make your predictions the less likely it is that they will prove accurate. Incidentally, this is another reason why I don’t favour pinnacle goal-setting with time predictions – the likelihood of making accurate predictions for precise accomplishments and on schedule is pitifully small and so if you fix upon that as your desire you end up designing disappointment into the process right from the start and you really don’t need that.

Wherever possible, build up your research, experimentation and development before you have to depend upon it and don’t give up what currently works for you until the new methods have reliably taken over. If you don’t do this then you create a lot of stress and desperate feelings because you remove your existing base of certainty. Jumping into the unknown rarely turns out well. Sometimes a massive effort can win a remarkable result but this doesn’t happen very often and you can’t apply this method as a long-term strategy as it is simply too risky. It can work as an immediate crisis response when you are desperate and have little to lose but modern life doesn’t work that way as it’s a long-haul game.

Confidence comes from depending upon solid competencies. We have achieved competency when we can predict an outcome based upon our abilities and achieve it far more often than not. We cannot achieve 100% predictable results but we can achieve close to 100% excellent implementation of the knowledge, understanding, skill, experience, organisation and processes that will put the odds of getting the result that we want in our favour. In an inherently uncertain world this approach offers the best chance of fulfilling difficult objectives and if we don’t get what we want then we truly can say that “I did my best.” i.e. I did everything within my power to control the outcome but failed due to the vagaries of chance.

One definition of luck runs this way: Luck is the preparedness to meet with opportunity. Through building solid methods and competencies and through on-going development and preparation you will be able to make the best use of the opportunities that come your way and on the whole, you will lead a lucky life.

On that note, I wish the best of luck to you!

 

Related articles:

The Scientific Method

Pinnacle Goal Setting Doesn’t Work

The Journey

Guaranteed: Self-Confidence

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[Photo by thegarethwiscombe]